by Terry MacCauley - Posted 1 week ago
The fourth quarter is always an interesting time in the automotive business. This year, it is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Between talk of a potential government shutdown, slower consumer spending, fluctuating rates, and growing anticipation for what is being called the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax refund season ahead, dealerships are facing both pressure and possibility.
For many, the knee-jerk reaction during uncertainty is to tighten up and wait it out. But in this business, the ones who thrive are the ones who lead through turbulence, not wait for calm. The goal right now is not survival; it is positioning. The decisions made between now and the end of the year will determine who walks into 2026 with momentum and who spends the first quarter trying to catch up.
If a shutdown occurs, expect confusion and hesitation from consumers. The immediate impact will be psychological, not financial, but it will influence buying behavior and payment consistency.
For Buy Here Pay Here dealers, communication will be critical. Your payers may worry about income interruptions or delayed tax refunds. Now is the time to strengthen trust and show leadership. Send proactive texts and messages that reinforce stability and support. Encourage open communication if customers experience hardship, and remind them that staying in touch is the best way to stay in their vehicle.
For retail dealers, the conversation should focus on confidence and timing. Encourage customers to move forward now while rates and inventory remain in their favor. Economic uncertainty often drives opportunity. Position your dealership as the steady hand guiding customers through the noise. The right message at the right time creates confidence, and confidence drives conversions.
Many dealers make the mistake of going quiet during times of market stress. They cut ad spend, freeze hiring, or wait until the “storm passes.” But the truth is that storms create visibility gaps, and the dealerships that remain active fill the void.
Pulling back on marketing now will not save money; it will cost future growth. The most brilliant move is to spend strategically. Review your current campaigns, sharpen your creative, and make sure your advertising dollars tell the right story.
Your ad message should focus on leadership and assurance. Let buyers know you are here, stable, and ready to help. Remember: silence creates doubt, while visibility builds trust.
Early projections suggest that 2026 will bring the most significant average tax refunds in years. Several factors are converging: inflation adjustments, expanded credits, and shifts in withholding patterns. Dealers who prepare now will reap the benefits of what we like to call The Big Beautiful Bill, the surge of refund money flowing into buyer pockets early next year.
For BHPH dealers, this is your moment to get ahead of tax season. Programs like Tax Max have revolutionized dealers' participation in tax season, selling without taking on additional administrative burdens. Customers can now file directly with Tax Max, and your store receives the lead and the refund information. That means more qualified buyers and faster closings—without the extra work.
Tax Max’s Consulting Groups start on November 4 for BHPH and December 2 for Retail dealers. These sessions will walk your Sales, Collections, and Marketing Teams through weekly action plans until refunds hit in March. This kind of guidance helps dealerships stay organized, focused, and agile throughout the most profitable season of the year.
For BHPH dealers looking to jumpstart tax season right now, the Tax Max 4th Quarter / Pre-Season Program is one of the most powerful tools available in the market. It allows dealers to leverage a customer’s most recent paycheck stub to estimate their upcoming refund, and sell a vehicle today based on that anticipated return.
With this program, dealers can confidently sell in October, November, December, January, and February months when traditional sales often slow down. Within 90 seconds, the program generates an estimate and a Promissory Note, giving your dealership a professional, compliant, and efficient process to close deals that would otherwise be lost to hesitation or timing.
The Tax Max 4th Quarter Program helps dealers capture valuable tax-season customers before competitors do, allowing you to “own the market” during the months others still consider pre-season.
Dealers who succeed with this program follow proven best practices:
Set clear expectations with customers about returning with W-2s to finalize their filings.
Engage your entire team, from sales to collections, to confidently understand and promote the program.
Offer small incentives (like movie tickets, oil changes, or giveaway drawings) to encourage return visits.
Attend free webinars and leverage Tax Max training resources to maximize performance.
Use pre-season payments or minor matched-advance requirements to create customer equity and reduce risk.
Target prior customers in good standing they are your best candidates for this program.
With a 90–95% historical success rate, this program is designed to work. Dealers who actively use it move more units, strengthen relationships, and improve cash flow during traditionally slower months.
This 4th Quarter opportunity is more than just a sales program; it is a strategic advantage. It creates momentum, builds loyalty, and confidently bridges the gap into the upcoming tax season.
For OEM and retail dealers or BHPH Dealers that do not care for or understand the 4th Quarter program, Tax Max’s 1st Quarter Program begins in January and aligns with traditional tax refund season. However, dealers who sign up can now hit the ground running once W-2s start rolling in.
This program simplifies tax refund sales through a web-based platform that allows customers to file directly with Tax Max while linking refunds to your dealership. Refund funds can be loaded on a debit card or printed as a check on-site, keeping your store in control of the transaction and ensuring customers spend their refund with you.
With add-on features like Taxes By Text, Website Direct Packages, and Tax Max Rewards, the 1st Quarter Program delivers an entirely new level of automation and customer convenience. Your buyers can file from your website, get approved, and access up to $6,000 within hours, with funds directed back to your dealership. That is the kind of innovation that turns refund season into a real revenue event.
The message you put into the market today matters. Tone, timing, and transparency build credibility.
For buyers: Keep the message confident and straightforward: “Buy now, before rates shift and inventory tightens.” Many customers assume they should wait for lower rates or a better time, but history shows that they often pay more later when they wait. Emphasize that today’s rates and flexible programs make this a smart time to buy.
For payers: Reinforce that communication is key. A supportive, approachable tone builds loyalty and reduces delinquency. Payers who trust that your dealership understands their situation are more likely to stay current and remain long-term customers.
A helpful internal tactic is to script weekly call or text themes for your team. Whether it is reassurance during uncertainty or excitement about upcoming tax opportunities, consistency across your messaging makes a difference.
Periods like this separate the average from the exceptional. Dealers who focus only on today’s challenges will feel squeezed. Dealers who look beyond the pain to what is coming next will dominate.
When refund season arrives, inventory will be the deciding factor. Dealers who start preparing now, sourcing, merchandising, and pricing strategically will have the vehicles that shoppers want when their refund checks arrive.
Remember that pain creates progress. While the market may feel tight now, rate cuts are anticipated in the coming quarters. Once the pressure eases, inventory access will improve, and the rebound will favor those who remained active through the downturn. The payoff will come to those who kept their pipeline full and their marketing strong.
Your team feels the tension, too. When buyers hesitate, salespeople can get discouraged. This is the perfect time to create energy and fun through Fourth Quarter Bonus Challenges and Reach Goals.
Consider short-term contests with realistic but motivating goals:
Mini goals for consistency: Reward salespeople who hit weekly unit targets or maintain high lead follow-up rates.
Marketing collaboration bonuses: Offer incentives for the salesperson whose deals generate the most engagement or social video views.
Team competitions: Pit departments or lots against each other for friendly rivalry and collective wins.
These contests and bonuses lift morale, create urgency, and remind your team that opportunity is still on the lot. People perform better when they are challenged, recognized, and having fun. In a tough market, energy is a dealer’s best advantage.
Your marketing should match the mood of the market. Here is how to keep your messaging on point through the end of the year:
Be Human: Use real faces, local imagery, and authentic storytelling. The polished, generic ads of the past will not cut it.
Emphasize Readiness: Show that your dealership is ready to help buyers prepare for tax season now, not later.
Focus on Value and Trust: Inflation fatigue has changed how people buy. They are not just looking for low prices; they want confidence in where they spend their money.
Integrate Your Channels: Ensure your social media, OTT, and PPC messages align. When awareness, consideration, and conversion efforts connect, conversion costs drop, and trust increases.
Big Time Advertising’s strategy for its dealer clients always focuses on this full-funnel approach because no single platform wins alone. Success comes when each layer supports the others.
The last months of the year are not just about hitting this quarter’s numbers but about setting up next year’s success. Use this period to fine-tune your systems, build your CRM database, and train your teams for a fast start in January.
Every ad you run, every conversation your team has, and every process you refine will compound when the Big Beautiful Bill arrives in early 2026. The dealers who start the tax season sprint ready to go will not only sell more, but they will also sell smarter.
Now is not the time to pause. Now is the time to lead. Be the dealer that buyers and payers trust to guide them through uncertainty. Stay visible. Stay proactive. Keep your message clear and your team motivated.
Economic challenges create fear, but they also create separation, and that separation is where opportunity lives. Dealers who keep their foot on the gas now will dominate when the rebound hits.
When the government settles, refunds arrive, and rates drop, those who stayed engaged will not be chasing the market; they will be leading it Big Time.
Finish 2025 strong. The best is coming for those prepared to meet it.
-by Terry MacCauley, Founder & CEO
As the strategic advertising partner for Tax Max, Big Time Advertising highly recommends the NEW Tax Season Consulting Groups for dealers who want to maximize this tax season's opportunities.
Starting November 4 for BHPH dealers and December 2 for Retail dealers, Tax Max will host weekly 30-minute Zoom sessions every Tuesday. Each session will begin with 5–10 minutes of key updates, followed by an open Q&A to help your Sales, Collections, and Advertising & Marketing Teams stay aligned and proactive.
These groups will focus on actionable strategies and insights, including navigating the potential Government Shutdown, developing staff incentive plans, structuring deals, and implementing effective weekly marketing tactics. You will also learn about the NEW Tax Max SecureClose video, the NEW Collections Assistance program, and how Tax Max now allows customers to file directly. So your team can focus on selling cars while Tax Max sends you the leads and refund details.
These sessions will continue through March, helping you stay ahead of the curve and maximize your performance throughout tax season.
To learn more or reserve your spot, visit taxmax.com/TaxMax/car-dealers-overview, email trs@taxrefundservices.com, or call 813-987-2199 for immediate assistance.
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